"Donald Trump and Marco Rubio won Tuesday’s night primetime Republican debate, according to an overnight poll of Internet users who watched the contest..."

"... but Mr. Trump came out as the favorite among Republicans and left the best impression about his ability to serve as president. Some 24% of debate-viewers named Mr. Trump and 23% picked Mr. Rubio as the winner of the eight-candidate event, which was sponsored by the Wall Street Journal and Fox Business News. Ted Cruz and Ben Carson followed, with 13% declaring each to have won...."

The Wall Street Journal reports its poll done by Google Consumer Surveys.

"Ben Carson Vaults to Lead in Latest Journal/NBC Poll."

"The result marks the first time since June that the Journal/NBC News poll has found a Republican other than Mr. Trump to be leading the GOP field. Some 29% of GOP primary voters rank Mr. Carson as their top choice, while 23% favor Mr. Trump. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz rank third and fourth as the top pick of 11% and 10% of Republican primary voters, respectively. Some 8% prefer former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other Republican garners more than 3% support."

The WSJ reports. Since the poll was both before and after last week's debate, we can't really tell what the effect of the debate was. But what surprises me — looking at the charts at the link — is that Marco Rubio declined a percentage point. And Bush stayed in the same place.

"Ben Carson has taken a narrow lead nationally in the Republican presidential campaign, dislodging Donald J. Trump from the top spot for the first time in months..."

"... according to a New York Times/CBS News survey released on Tuesday."

Carson has 26%, Trump 22%. The very quiet man is beating the very noisy man.

The distant third is Rubio with 8%, and Bush and Fiorina are dragging closely after him, each with 7%. Paul, Cruz, Huckabee, Kasich slog along in a dreary pack under the embarrassing number 4.

Did you realize there's another debate tomorrow? What's the best thing that could happen, I wonder. After Hillary Clinton's big week, last week, powered by the weakness of Republicans, what can these characters do this week to give nonGOP fans a sense that anything should or could change the trajectory toward Hillary Clinton's seemingly inevitable victory a year from now?

I'm picturing Trump blustering, Carson murmuring, and everyone else boring the pants off us. Will they — should they — attack each other or is it time to demonstrate that they have what it takes to stop Hillary? If the latter, what can they do that won't remind us of how ineffectual the Benghazi committee was in revealing her to be undeserving of the public's trust?

IN THE COMMENTS: People are accusing me of having somehow suddenly become a Hillary supporter. I respond:

Those who think I'm dedicated to Hillary are seriously deluded. Your delusion is part of a syndrome that is going to help her win. You are in a dream world in which the practicalities of winning don't matter. I'm trying to wake you up. If you are going to just say things like Wow, Althouse is in the tank for Hillary, then you are part of the problem you are blithering about.

After some defense of my use of the word "blithering" and more push back about my supposed in-the-tankedness for Hillary, I say:

I think Hillary is and should be beatable. I just don't see the Republicans getting it together to do that. I think that's what Jeb realizes and why he's blithering that he's got "a lot of really cool things" he could do other than run for President. With the normal candidates crumpling, you're left with a weird party that normal voters won't be able to take seriously. That's what I see down the road, and nobody who's complaining about my telling you that is saying anything that makes me think the situation is going to get better for Republicans.

How Trump reacts to the polls that show Carson ahead in Iowa.

"I love Iowa and I honestly think those polls are wrong.... Let me give you the bad news.... The biggest headline yesterday... 'Trump Falls to 2nd Place in Iowa Behind Ben Carson. We Informed Carson But He Was Sleeping.' Ben Carson is leading Iowa supposedly. Ben Carson is super low energy. We need tremendous energy... I don’t believe those polls, by the way, because both of those pollsters don’t like me... They made it seem like the greatest defeat in history... All day long, ugh my head."

From "Trump tees off on Carson, pollsters at Miami golf club rally/The businessman decries Iowa poll results on his home turf at Trump National Doral, calling the property a model for the country" at Politico.

Trump does have "tremendous energy," and you can see how he uses it. I wondered what it would be like to have a President who processes and talks about the news like this. When he doesn't like something, will he refuse to believe it and accuse the bearers of bad news of bias?

And it's hard to imagine just how much he hates this bad news about the polls. He's continually bragged about how he's way up in all the polls. And he famously said: "I'm not a masochist. If I was dropping in the polls where I saw that I wasn't going to win, why would I continue?" And after successfully mocking Jeb Bush as low energy and just as the Bush campaign is crashing, Trump's triumph is ruined by the "super low energy" Carson beating him in the polls, wrecking his favorite brag, forcing him into the beta whine "I don’t believe those polls, by the way, because both of those pollsters don’t like me."

It's time for Jeb Bush to withdraw and endorse Marco Rubio.

You may think it's a little early for this, but as Joe Biden said yesterday, it's already late. Look at the Real Clear Politics summary of the polls:



Trump dominates, but only with less than one third. Carson does well. The others are struggling to make much of a showing, but somebody needs to emerge as the political mainstream candidate, and I think that person will be Rubio, sooner or later. Jeb Bush should figure that out and do something to help now, when it would be most helpful. Jeb's candidacy has failed. Not completely, not yet, but he hasn't built his poll numbers, he's lost ground, and his self-presentation has been weak. I like his mild manner, but it's "low energy," as Trump puts it, and, as I'd put it, just not competitive and forceful enough to gain ground in this field. Rubio, by contrast, has some combative heft.

Biden showed how to make a beautiful, graceful exit, and Jeb can do even better, because Hillary didn't need Biden's endorsement. She only needed him to get out of the way, and now she's gloriously in the lead and on track for the nomination. Oh? Do you think she might commit suicide at today's Benghazi hearing? Don't make me laugh. I'm laughing like this:



Jeb can do better than Biden, because he can embrace and throw his full support to Rubio when Rubio needs it to get traction for the hard climb to the nomination. Do it now, Jeb, when it matters so much.

ADDED: In fact, every GOP candidate who is not Trump or Carson should look around right now and figure out who, other than himself, he should support. (That includes Fiorina. I'm just using the masculine pronoun for the singular. Old-school grammar.)

Fiorina's peak — at 15% — is in the past. She's down 11 points to 4%.

That's 7th place in the new CNN/ORC poll.

Trump and Carson romp on the peak, at 27% and 22%, and nobody else is higher than 8%.

How does it feel, losing the dream of a tough female fighting Hillary? The embodiment of feminism as conservatism, gone poof.

The new IBD/TIPP poll has Ben Carson in the lead — with 24% — and Trump at 17%.

How incredibly strange... and this follows on Carson's much-noticed statement that he wouldn't accept a Muslim as President. Can it be that what seemed like an unforced error actually helped his cause? Trump boosted his cause by making statements that look — to mainstream commentators — as though they outright disqualify him from being taken seriously. Perhaps it's not Trump's style and bluster that have put him in the lead, but the substance itself, the very substance that horrifies moderates. Because here's Carson, with his completely different demeanor and tone, vaulting ahead saying something that anybody serious was supposed to know you just don't say.

Carson has also been citing Hitler. Asked why the other day, he said:

"If people don't speak up for what they believe, then other people will change things without them having a voice. Hitler changed things there and nobody protested. Nobody provided any opposition to him, and that's what facilitated his rise."

The reporter who asked the question prompted Carson to say that Obama is like Hitler, but he said, "no":

"I'm saying that in a situation where people do not express themselves, bad things can happen. That's the main problem that I have with political correctness. It keeps people from expressing themselves. And it's the expression, the conversation, that leads to solutions. Keeping everybody silent, while you change the fabric of the society, is not what America was supposed to be about."